Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.996060 12.867188 14.916293 17.320991 20.059497 23.074708 26.639361
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.230895 10.806082 13.910961 17.902069 22.865094 28.800144 36.397678
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.471110 9.389886 13.211490 18.513291 25.598326 34.650458 46.985362
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.017917 7.975171 12.144657 18.330738 27.127376 39.014542 56.079439
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.841878 6.652181 10.896689 17.592063 27.658699 41.952755 63.426565
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.017791 5.661125 9.915551 17.011045 28.224982 44.859653 70.859769
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.527237 5.096232 9.472373 17.137201 29.786395 49.266029 80.752995
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.079572 4.503588 8.868002 16.881585 30.661832 52.644301 89.307406
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.877061 4.320113 8.929581 17.732944 33.394066 59.106669 103.093839
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.642551 4.021294 8.725752 18.069265 35.256235 64.278184 115.163646
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.415516 3.687655 8.397088 18.118371 36.592923 68.648865 126.198836
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.230444 3.404887 8.119826 18.216379 38.002901 73.219159 137.846928
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.168090 3.403578 8.439954 19.562513 41.924724 82.570606 158.521990
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.065722 3.284125 8.491992 20.377455 44.928833 90.549852 177.421644
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.969969 3.159950 8.513634 21.129692 47.881212 98.656197 197.101824
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.829752 2.880550 8.129340 20.950693 48.940255 103.324298 210.877196
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.678192 2.526067 7.499240 20.129618 48.577286 105.248778 219.702886
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.560456 2.237661 6.978343 19.479165 48.488574 107.664418 229.566292
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.493421 2.091576 6.801788 19.622677 50.128389 113.595048 246.496213
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.420279 1.901870 6.470435 19.335310 50.769529 117.542176 259.793344
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.396933 1.884090 6.622339 20.294253 54.338784 127.730220 285.992890
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.358456 1.797490 6.556654 20.672894 56.580031 135.274250 307.285933
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.315954 1.681056 6.379304 20.728191 58.054184 141.283472 325.796474